The Triniyah Podcast

Connecticut Real Estate Market Weekly Insights (10-6-25)

Episode Summary

This episode breaks down the latest trends in Connecticut’s single-family housing market, highlighting rising prices, steady buyer demand, and cooling bidding intensity compared to last year. It also covers new housing developments, major downtown redevelopment efforts, migration trends, interest rate updates, and national economic news impacting the real estate landscape.

Episode Notes

This week’s Connecticut Real Estate Market Weekly Insights focuses exclusively on single-family homes statewide, with condos and multifamily to be covered in a future episode.

📈 Market Snapshot – September Single-Family Performance

Median sale price: ~$462K — up 6.2% year over year

Closed sales: ~2,317 — up 4.3%

Average sold-to-list ratio: 2.2% over asking, slightly lower than last year

Median days on market: 20 days, up 2 days from 2024

Average price per sq. ft.: ~$286 — up 5.1%

Strongest activity: $200K–$599K price range

Luxury segment ($1.2M+): Properties still selling, but with longer timelines and smaller premiums

Overall, prices and sales volume are up, competition remains strong, but bidding wars are cooling slightly compared to peak conditions.

🔄 Market Activity & Seasonality

Sales followed a classic rhythm — peaking in early summer, easing into fall but still outperforming last year. Higher-priced transactions made this year’s average sale price roughly 8% higher than 2024.

🏠 Buyer Demand Breakdown

Sweet spot for speed and competitiveness remains $200K–$1.4M

Example: $200K–$399K homes go under contract in ~13 days, selling ~3.5% over asking

Above $3M, average time-to-contract jumps to nearly a month, with minimal over-ask activity

📊 Inventory & Months of Supply

New listings: ~3,167 (+2.1% YoY)

Pending sales: ~1,821 (–22.9% YoY) — a sign of greater buyer selectivity

Active listings: ~4,389 statewide

Months of supply: 1.89 months — still firmly a seller’s market

Tightest supply: $200K–$399K (1.27 months)

Highest supply: $3M+ (8+ months)

🏷️ Price Reductions

~33% of active listings have had at least one price drop

Average reduction: just over 9%

Once reduced, median time to offer drops to ~15 days

🧭 Migration Patterns

Outbound sellers: Florida (22%), New York (14%), Massachusetts (9%)

Inbound buyers: New York remains dominant (42% of incoming), followed by MA, FL, RI, and CA

16% of buyers came from out of state, down from peak pandemic highs

💡 Local & National Housing News

Connecticut launches a new online climate risk tool to help homeowners assess flood, wind, and pollution exposure beyond FEMA maps

Hartford North End sees proposal for 27 new for-sale rowhouse units

Waterbury moving forward with multi-million-dollar downtown redevelopment, including infrastructure upgrades, mixed-use conversions, and transit-centered revitalization

New Haven advancing a 171-unit mixed-income apartment project in Ninth Square

🌎 National Economic & Housing Trends

Fannie Mae forecasts a mild U.S. recession by early 2026, but no major housing crash

Home flipping profits hit a 17-year low, with ROI down to 25.1%

Realtor.com projects October 12–18 as the “best week to buy” in 2025

Mortgage spreads have cooled — keeping rates lower than Treasury yields suggest — with 2025 mortgage rates expected to hover between 5.75–7.25%